Context-Aware Parameter Estimation for Forecast Models in the Energy Domain

Abstract. Continuous balancing of energy demand and supply is a fun-damental prerequisite for the stability and efficiency of energy grids. This balancing task requires accurate forecasts of future electricity consump-tion and production at any point in time. For this purpose, database systems need to be able to rapidly process forecasting queries and to pro-vide accurate results in short time frames. However, time series from the electricity domain pose the challenge that measurements are constantly appended to the time series. Using a naive maintenance approach for such evolving time series would mean a re-estimation of the employed mathematical forecast model from scratch for each new measurement, which is very time consuming. We speed-up the forecast model mainte-nance by exploiting the particularities of electricity time series to reuse previously employed forecast models and their parameter combinations. These parameter combinations and information about the context in which they were valid are stored in a repository. We compare the current context with contexts from the repository to retrieve parameter com-binations that were valid in similar contexts as starting points for fur-ther optimization. An evaluation shows that our approach improves the maintenance process especially for complex models by providing more accurate forecasts in less time than comparable estimation methods

Steps toward Developing an Artificial Cell Signaling Model Applied to Distributed Fault Detection

Cell signaling mechanism provides robust immune response and protects our body from a wide variety of pathogens. This work attempts to develop an artificial signaling model inspired by biological signaling process and derived abstractions. In this paper, we described various aspects of immune cell signaling and their integration towards a system-level response. Based on these abstractions, we synthesized a simple artificial cell signaling model in order to solve fault detection with the objective to provide early detection of faulty system components, as well as the overall analysis of the distributed system. © 2014 Springer International Publishing Switzerland